RAS Analysis: Colorado at Pepperdine (pick)

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Season record: 2-1 +0.9 UNITS

One play for Monday:

Colorado at Pepperdine (pick) - 7:30pm Pacific
The Waves have a very good basketball team this year. Insiders call it perhaps their best and deepest team ever. If you still don't believe it, take a look at the non-conference schedule Paul Westphal has lined up. They take on Dayton and Colorado at home and play Oklahoma State, Maryland, UCSB, Colorado State, Utah, and UC Irvine all on the road. They will also participate in the Rainbow Classic. Last year Pepperdine was decimated by injuries with three key starters being lost early in the season. They still managed a 15-13 record and finished 4th in the WCC. Many young players got minutes they otherwise would not have and that experience will pay off this year. Most notable being 6-5 combo guard Alex Acker who earned conference freshman of the year honors. Acker is strong and athletic with a nice shot making him a difficult matchup for anyone. Junior Terrance Johnson was conference freshman of the year before Acker and last year earned all conference honors. He actually is starting this season coming off the bench, that is how deep this team is. Jet quick freshman point guard Shaun Davis earned the start in season opener. He drew a tough assignment for his first college game going against Dayton senior Ramod Marshall. He finished a disappointing 2-for-9 from the field but dished out 9 assists in only 25 minutes. I expect him to play much better with a game under his belt and facing much less tougher guards tonight. Starting center Jesse Pinegar (BYU transfer) also shot poorly (3-for-10) in his first game in a Pepperdine uniform but you could tell he has a nice stroke and is very active around the basket. His quickness and outside shooting make him a difficult matchup for any opposing center. I look for him to have a much better game tonight as well. Senior F/C Glen McGowan (26 points in opener) is back after missing almost all of last season with injury. He can score both inside and out and takes this team to another level. Junior forward Robert Turner is another active athletic player and rebounder. 6-10 sophomore Derick Grub gives the Waves another big body and five more fouls to throw at CU center Harrison. I am not counting on JC transfer forward Yakhouba Diawara playing, he is questionable awaiting an eligibility ruling. If he is able to play its another boost.

Colorado is coming off a seemingly nice road win at Northwestern but is hard to give them much credit for it. The Wildcats were undersized and undermanned. Their starting center is recovering from injury and only played one minute. Northwestern did not start a player over 6-8 and only managed two bench points. Still, the Cats led by 5 at half-time and for a good part of the second half before giving way. Northwestern shot 7-for-29 in the second half and only managed 3 field goals in the final 13 minutes. It may have been due in part to good Colorado defense, but the Cats also missed 7 free throws in the second half after shooting 100% in the first. The final margin of 11 points is misleading.

Pepperdine lost its season opener to a very good Dayton team (defending A-10 champions). The Flyers have two experienced guards that made good decisions and controlled tempo of the game. Dayton senior Marshall and junior Jones were almost interchangeable at the point. Dayton big man Finn also surprised everyone with his inside presence (19 points, looked much better than he did a season ago). Dayton outscored Pepperdine by 24 at the free throw line. The Waves missed 10 of their first 11 shots and trailed by as many as 16 in the first half. Even with all of that Pepperdine fought their way back to trail by only 4 on two occasions in the second half but could get no closer. Pepperdine made adjustments and did a much better job in the second half defending Finn in the low post with fronting and double teams. That experience should have them much better prepared for Colorado big man Harrison. CU's Harrison only managed 10 points vs Northwestern despite having a big size advantage. He is going to have a tough time keeping up with Pepperdine's mobile centers on the defensive end. Unlike Dayton, Colorado does not have strong guard play. Sophomore Antione McGee got the start at point vs Northwestern and went scoreless. Freshman Marcus Hall actually got most of the point guard minutes. Neither is very experienced or very good. Shooting guard Blair Wilson is strictly a shooter and not much of a ball handler. Despite their opening win, Colorado is a very poor road team. They are just 7-21 outright and 10-17 ATS the last two years away from home. They are 19-49 outright and 25-41 ATS away from home the last five years.

Pepperdine needed their first game and it was against a very tough opponent. They fought admirably after getting off to a horrible start. I look for them to play much better tonight. They really want and need this win. Quote from head coach Paul Westphal in Daily News "I know we can play so much better." Colorado is a poor road team and will be playing their second straight road game in four days making a trip from Illinois to the west coast. The Waves are an impressive 60-15 (80%) at 3,104 seat Firestone Fieldhouse since 97-98 season. I really like the way Pepperdine matches up here. Go Waves.

Pepperdine 2 UNITS

FYI: We are 14-2 on 2 UNIT college basketball plays since January 2002.


Good luck,

Edward
Right Angle Sports
 

The Great Govenor of California
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Pepperdine was dominated on the glass, they dont cherish the ball, Miggins and Brazzer brought swagger, I look for Colorado to beat them on the glass, I think Dayton could have won by 20 if they wanted too. I saw Pinegar play several times at BYU the guy is garbage, Im not a big Westphal fan either, and this is far from the best Pepperdine team, actually one of the worst ones in the last 6 years. Finn isnt that good, but Pepperdine made him look good, Harrison will have a field day tommorrow.
 
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Dayton played very well and were just able to hold on despite having a double digit halftime lead. Pepperdine was a play or two away from winning. Have no idea where you get Dayton could have won by 20. They could not have played any better. Two key players were making their Pepperdine debut. They will benefit from the outing. Pinegar played at BYU two years ago, he is better and will have a good year.

Harrison only scored 10 vs Northwestern without a player over 6-8 in their starting lineup. Explain to me how he is going to have a field day here? I do like Harrison, but he has never been able to win games on his own. He does not play as well on the road, their whole team doesn't. You could make a living just betting against CU on the road. You would win over 60% the past 5 seasons.

For you to say its the worst Pepperdine team in 6 years is just wrong.

Good luck,

Edward
 

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Pepperdine lost by 13 and Johnson kept them that close by making 7 three balls, Pepperdine has been to the post season 7 straight yrs until last year, Westphal came to Pepperdine for 2 reasons A. Gary Payton ran him out of Seattle B. To coach his son. The team sucked last year and has now lost Brazzle and Miggins, they are 9-19 against the number last 28 and its not going to get better, they were outrebounded by 13. I will say Colorado is not as good as Dayton but they wont need to be, Colorado has 4 starters returning from a 20 win team that was dancing last year. If I were you Edward I would do some further review on this game.
 

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another thing the 3400 seat Firestone gym wont be sold out being this game isnt on tv for the kiddy show.
 
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Railbird,

In all due respect, I believe I have researched this game plenty. I remain very confident in my play.

A little disagreement is healthy. If not, the action would be one sided and the line out of whack.

Best of luck to you.


Edward
 

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Personally all over Pepperdine in this one and happy to see Railbird disagree -- it only scares me when everyone is on the same side.

Railbird, I would strongly encourage you to bet the sh*t out of the Buffs tonight -- I mean hammer them like you've never hammered a game before!
icon_smile.gif


glta
 

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Hey handicapper, i sent you an email regarding reports. It was sent to infowins. Maybe we can work something out. If not oh well. like to talk tto you a bit if you want to chat on your forum. Give me a time and i'll be there. Thanks. Love the Wave tonight also.
 
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I'll be at the game scouting both teams and rooting us on. My first time to Firestone Fieldhouse. Go Waves.


Edward
 

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Ill be there to Edward maybe I can buy you a pretzel at halftime or something.
 

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Lots of line movement here, I'm liking Pepperdine as well. I think losing to Dayton might not be so bad, given the beating they dished out on C. Mich today.

Agree with the write-up, with a game under their belt and those loose rims and home court.

Pepperdine -1.
 

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Anybody know the final of this game? ESPN is too busy producing 4th rate melodramas to put this score on their reel.
 

I am sorry for using the "R" word - and NOTHING EL
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Pepperidge Farm pulled away late and won 94-77

nice call here!
 

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ed i wish there was a bigger unit difference in your games i know 2 is strong but how much stronger than 1 just curious
 

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Thanks WD! I like the fact that RAS understates their unit play. Their thinking is(I'm guessing) that 1 unit is strong and 2 is strongest and theirnot mentioning mild plays at all. Shows selectivity. I've found even good handicappers that do the 1 to 5 ratings are putting 1 and 2's with very little foundation.
 
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Thanks guys. Just got back from the game. It was exciting. Pepperdine really was determined. Colorado had a chance to open up a lead in the first half, but the Wave answered every time. Pinegar and the point guard Davis had great second halves.

Edward
 

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Nice Pick Ed!!!!

Just wanted to let everyone know that I bought Ed's services last year...after he gave a 2 unit winner with Gonzaga over NC ST in the Jimmy V Classic....so i said to myself that I would do it again if Pepperdine comes in...and I'm Sure Glad it did!!

thanks again for the winner

u r the man!
 

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agreeen, after his results last year, I can't beleive that you wouldn't have already bought this year. It easily pays for itself. the thing i like is that he is very selective, he is the first to release games for the day [sometimes night before i.e., peperdine] and you know he caps the games, unlike 95% of the scamdicappers who just give out other cappers plays. only thing i noticed is that he can undervalue the home court advantage when playing a road team. no offense Edward, jsut an observation.
 

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